With a few weeks until NCAA Tournament time, which Texas teams are in position to reach the postseason?
With NPI, the new selection system being used in Division III athletics starting this fall, getting an idea of how the postseason picture is shaping up is more straightforward than it has ever been. Every Division III team, regardless of region, is listed together, ranked according to their NPI number, calculated by a formula. It is an entirely automated process, allowing us to know exactly who claims the at-large bids and who stays at home as soon as the final conference tournament game concludes.
The homestretch of the regular season has arrived for volleyball, men’s soccer, and women’s soccer, (with conference tournaments to follow), and football is in the final four weeks of its season as well. With that, we thought it’d be insightful to look at where Texas’ top teams are currently ranked by NPI, and how the NCAA Tournament outlook appears for each of them.
For the purposes of this, we’re only including teams with a legitimate shot at an at-large bid. That eliminates most teams who are ranked No. 60 and above in NPI, and there just isn’t time to make up the ground necessary for a 20-spot jump to get into at-large bid contention. Additionally, as is noted throughout this, every team that win their respective conference title (with the exception of SCAC Football, who doesn’t yet have an automatic bid to the playoffs) gets into the tournament regardless of their NPI. NPI is purely used for at-large bids, though even conference favorites need to pay attention to their NPI rankings, as upsets happen and some of conference favorites may end up needing an at-large to get in.
Volleyball
Nearly a lock
ETBU (NPI rank: 14): Ranked 10th in the country by the AVCA and more importantly, in the Top 15 in NPI, with seven regular season matches to go, the Tigers are in prime position. Their 19-1 record speaks for itself, and ETBU is the far and away favorite to claim the ASC’s automatic bid to the tournament. As the highest-rated Region X team in NPI, ETBU currently has the best chance of anyone in the Texas/West Coast conferences to host on the opening weekend of the national tournament.
Southwestern (NPI rank: 26): The Pirates are still in good position for an at-large bid if they don’t win the SCAC tournament. Currently tied with Trinity at 8-1 in league play, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will claim the SCAC’s auto bid, so having a guaranteed spot in Pool C is a big deal. The Pirates are 17-2 and face Trinity in San Antonio on Friday evening in one of our games of the week.
In position, but still work to do
Trinity (NPI rank: 29): The separation between Trinity and Southwestern could either grow or completely be erased depending on what happens Friday night. At 15-6, Trinity has far less room for additional losses than Southwestern or ETBU, but also has a fairly favorable stretch to close the regular season after facing the Pirates. With only 21 at-large bids, Trinity is currently in the No. 12 spot for at-large if the season ended today. Going 6-1 (or 7-0) to close the regular season likely gives the Tigers a good amount of confidence for an at-large heading into the league tournament.
Football
Nearly a lock
Hardin-Simmons (NPI rank: 3): HSU is not only a near-surefire NCAA playoff team (currently projected to earn the auto bid out of the ASC), but the Cowboys could end up in a spot where they host up through the national quarterfinals (assuming they go that far in the playoffs) if they manage to win their final four regular season games. Of course, that stretch includes ETBU twice and UMHB once, so it will be no easy task. But HSU is certainly Region 10’s best chance for a top eight seed in this year’s postseason as of now.
In position, but still work to do
Mary Hardin-Baylor (NPI rank: 26): The road win at UW-Whitewater still looks good on The Cru’s resume, and the victory at home against ETBU certainly helps. Right now, UMHB would earn the seventh at-large bid to the 40-team playoff, though The Cru still has road games at ETBU and Hardin-Simmons ahead. Only 12 teams will be selected for at-large bids, so UMHB, with a 3-1 D-III record, more than likely needs to win out to have an NPI high enough for an at-large in the case that they don’t win the ASC. There’s also a chance that losing to ETBU but beating Hardin-Simmons could keep UMHB in contention, though that scenario would significantly lessen The Cru’s opportunity at a playoff bid.
An outside chance
ETBU (NPI rank: 36): If the season ended today, the Tigers would be the first team out, at No. 13 amongst at-large contenders. So ETBU still has a decent chance, but it’s going to take winning out, or at least beating UMHB and splitting their two games with HSU. At 4-1 with a weaker SOS, ETBU needs to take advantage of its remaining opportunties for quality wins, which will boost the Tigers’ NPI due to the quality win bonus (QWB) that is tied in with NPI. And they need to root for teams such as Endicott and Hobart to win their respective conference titles to avoid either team “stealing” an at-large bid.
Men’s Soccer
Nearly a lock
Trinity (NPI rank: 15): Interestingly enough, the SCAC has two Top 15 NPI teams in Colorado College and Trinity. With CC as the higher-ranked SCAC team, Trinity would currently be in line for an at-large bid. The Tigers’ postseason chances appear very high at this point, with a 12-0-2 record, and a solid chance to win at least three of their final four before the SCAC Tournament.
Pool A only
Hardin-Simmons (NPI rank: 67) and Mary Hardin-Baylor (NPI rank: 110): Somebody has to win the AQ out of the ASC. And neither of the two frontrunners are in at-large bid contention. UMHB is actually just ahead of HSU in the league standings entering Saturday’s match between the two in Belton, with a 4-0-1 league record and a head-to-head win over HSU. NPI won’t be a factor for either of these teams, as NPI doesn’t affect automatic qualifers. So while there’s a 43-place gap between the two right now, the case could be made that UMHB is actually the favorite to win the ASC, considering the Crusaders’ previous 2-0 win over the Cowboys.
Women’s Soccer
Nearly a lock
Hardin-Simmons (NPI rank: 26): You can never be too sure in the ASC, with UMHB and HSU each holding nearly 50/50 odds to win the league title. So NPI will certainly be a factor for the Cowgirls, who are 13-1-2 and a perfect 6-0 in ASC play. If HSU doesn’t get the auto bid by winning the ASC, they would most likely be the 10th at-large team off the board if the season ended today. A major clash with UMHB is set for Saturday, and NPI numbers could change—positively or negatively—after that. But regardless, I think HSU is in a great spot when it comes to reaching the postseason.
Trinity (NPI rank: 28): At least right now, it doesn’t seem like anyone in the SCAC is capable of scoring on Trinity. Austin College is the only SCAC team in seven league matches thus far to have even found the back of the net once, and the Tigers have allowed just five goals in 14 matches, en route to a 7-0 SCAC record. It doesn’t seem likely that Trinity needs an at-large bid, as they should win the SCAC Tournament. But if they do end up needing it, the Tigers should be in a comfortable position with the way everything else is shaping up, and would be the No. 11 team taken off the at-large bid board if the season ended today.
An outside chance
UMHB (NPI rank: 55): Again, I’m projecting things based on the top team out of each conference in NPI winning their respective league title. So with no bid stealers, UMHB would be eight spots outside of earning an at-large bid right now. With that said, Saturday’s match against HSU at home, along with a potential rematch in the ASC Tournament final, will be huge. If UMHB manages to beat HSU twice, I think The Cru’s chances of an at-large go way up, assuming they win the rest of their matches. 10-2-2 is a solid record right now, and The Cru is certainly in contention, but has some serious work to do to reach the national tournament for a third straight season.
Numbers of the Week
2 undefeated college football teams remaining in the state of Texas in Texas Wesleyan (NAIA) and D3’s own, Hardin-Simmons. With a 6-0 record, HSU is undefeated beyond the midpoint of a 10-game season for the first time since 2016.
4 rushing touchdowns for Texas Lutheran QB Caden Bosanko in last week’s 55-17 win at Austin College, tying the program record for single-game rushing scores by a QB. Those four TDs alone would rank fourth in the SCAC’s rushing TD season stat totals, and with seven rushing TDs, Bosanko is tied for the conference lead in that category.
9 consecutive seasons with a double-digit win total for UMHB women’s soccer, who claimed its 10th win of 2024 in Thursday’s 1-0 shutout of Howard Payne. Incredibly, prior to the arrival of head coach Barry Elkins, who has been at UMHB since 2012, The Cru had just one instance of back-to-back 10+ win seasons 2008 and 2009.
4 minutes (actually 3 minutes, 43 seconds to be exact) remained in Sunday’s 2-1 win for Centenary men’s soccer when Brennan Amato found the back of the net for the go-ahead goal. It lifted the Gents to a one-score victory over McMurry, as Centenary captured its seventh win of 2024, marking the Gents’ first seven-win season since 2019.
1,348 points for ETBU Volleyball in this past week’s AVCA Top 25, as the Tigers remain in the Top 10 at No. 10. That point total from the voting panel is the highest in program history, a notable accomplishment as people from around the country are starting to pay more and more attention to the 18-game win streak ETBU is currently carrying late in the regular season.
Game of the Week: ETBU at Hardin-Simmons | Football | Saturday | 1:00 p.m.
There is a lot on the line here. As I already noted when talking about the postseason picture, this is a must-win game for ETBU. The Tigers have proven to be one of the ASC’s best in terms of offensive production, averaging 47.4 points per game through their first six. But they haven’t faced a defense of HSU’s caliber, who will be back at home for the first time since Oct. 5. With a homecoming crowd on hand in Abilene, the atmosphere is expected to be at a high level, and the big question is whether ETBU will be able to meet that challenge. HSU isn’t unbeatable—McMurry nearly pulled off an upset last week against the Cowboys, losing 17-12—but the Cowboys haven’t wavered thus far. When it comes to the ASC standings, an ETBU win would also create an interesting scenario, with a three-way tie at the top.
Other games we’ll be watching this weekend (all times are CT)
Southwestern at Trinity | Volleyball | Friday | 6:00 p.m. – I mentioned this above, but this is a huge match for both teams, whoare tied atop the SCAC Gold Division standings. . The winner should come away with a solid boost in their NPI ranking, while the loser may find itself a little more nervous when it comes to their postseason fate.
McMurry at Texas Lutheran | Football | Saturday | 5:00 p.m. – McMurry, 4-0 in the SCAC, travels to face a red-hot TLU team that is 4-1 in league play. Can TLU pull off a win and create a tie for first place? Or does McMurry emerge victorious on the road, more than likely winning the SCAC title?
Hardin-Simmons at UMHB | Women’s Soccer | Saturday | 5:00 p.m. – This is important because of the conference standing implications and the potential NPI impact. UMHB still has a chance to win the ASC title and host the league tournament, but The Cru absolutely has to beat HSU on Saturday. Because the Cowgirls only one 2-1 in the first meeting in Abilene, a two-goal win by UMHB (assuming both teams go 2-0 the following week) would give The Cru the regular season title per the ASC tie break policy. If the result goes in HSU’s favor, the Cowgirls would then most likely host the league tournament, with UMHB’s playoff hopes significantly diminished.
Trinity at Colorado College | Men’s Soccer | Sunday | 12:00 p.m. – It doesn’t get any bigger than this. Two Top 15 NPI teams square off for the first time this season in Colorado Springs, neither having dropped a SCAC match yet. Interestingly, both have the league’s top two scoring attacks and the league’s top two defenses, with this more than likely ending up as a low-scoring defensive battle.
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